020513

I didn’t buy anything today but I am selling NTWK for a nice gain.

For the record, I currently am holding more cash than I have in a long time, expecting a pull back soon followed by a fresh buying opportunity.

If I WAS going to buy something, it would be yet another regional bank, FDEF this time.  For now, I’m putting it on my watch list.

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020113- January Report

First caveat:  Although stocks were up 5.44% for the month, they were only up 3.68% since the Jan 2nd open.  There was a big jump between the Dec 31 close and the new year’s opening price.  All of the stocks in this portfolio were bought AFTER the Jan 2 open.

Second: I bought one stock each day, so the average holding time was just over ten days.

My return was 3.78% (all of the stocks purchased are mentioned in this month’s prior blog posts).   By comparison, if you had bought equal shares of the index each day this month at the opening price, you would be up 1.30%.  So you could say I trounced it.

I seem to have done a lousy job of timing my purchases since a lot of them went down the day I bought them.  I’ve been studying that and think I can improve on it with significant effects on my results.

Third caveat: One month doesn’t prove much and my method may well tend to underperform in a down market.

While I’m not explaining how I choose stocks (obviously not by their CAPS rating!), part of my method is to instill a discipline for buying and selling.  Since I was starting from zip, I bought one stock a day in January.  In February I plan to buy (and sell) a minimum of one stock and a maximum of three stocks per week.  When I sell it will be whichever current holding scores lowest in my system.  Whether it has been going up or down is largely irrelevant. The portfolio will eventually hold between 24 and 30 equities.  I’m estimating an average holding period of 8-12 weeks which would result in monthly trading costs of around $150.

This portfolio is not my entire portfolio.  I have some long-term holdings and a number of etf’s, etc.

I have done well in the past (in real life as well as in CAPS) and believe I found a way late last year to significantly improve my results.  That’s what this method is based on.

My biggest loss was ZAGG (-10.5% since 1/11).  Four others were down between 1.7% and 4.5%.

My biggest gainers were: PRCP (20.1%, 1/3), NTWK (15.42%, 1/16), APFC (12.65%, 1/7),  FFCH (11.48%, 1/4) and WHR (11.22%, 1/2).

 

013113

Today’s pick: PJC

Added to the watch list: TOT

I’ll have a report on January results and some more information on the strategy behind these picks tomorrow.  Barring any last minute disaster, January has been a very good month for the strategy.

012913

My two highest picks (after screens, filters and analysis) today were both regional banks.  I hesitated as two of my previous picks this month (FIBK, FFCH) have been regional banks.  But I went ahead and followed the numbers anyway, purchasing TSBK over CVCY because it is in an economically more vibrant area.

012413

I’ve mentioned KCAP a couple of times and today I finally ran out of new ideas and was able to go back and cherry pick it out of my best old ideas that never got bought.

I like the idea of BDC’s in general and KCAP looks like the best of the bunch.  It’s another stock I’ve owned before and should have held on to.  Heckuva dividend.

I would expect it to follow the economy (up or down) times 2.

I’m going to wait until after the market opens to buy.